samedi 27 décembre 2014

La chute de l’euro et du pétrole au secours de la croissance ?


Bien sûr, la politique menée par le gouvernement le mène dans une impasse, illustrée par le nouveau record du chômage en novembre. Néanmoins, la croissance aux Etats-Unis, la hausse du dollar et la forte chute du prix du pétrole pourraient apporter un léger regain de croissance en 2015.



2014 depuis le rétroviseur


Il faut bien reconnaître que nous nous situons dans le bas de la fourchette puisque les dernières prévisions font état d’une croissance de 0,4% pour l’année en cours en France. On peut penser que le ralentissement des pays émergents et un rebond mécanique plus limité peuvent expliquer le léger écart. Mais globalement, j’ai l’impression de ne pas avoir trop à rougir de ces prévisions qui avaient souvent déclenché des débats passionnés. C’est d’ailleurs sur ce rebond mécanique que François Hollande parie pour essayer de sauver son mandat et pouvoir se représenter dans des circonstances plus favorables en 2017 et ne pas être balayé même si depuis quelques mois, cette stratégie semble très aléatoire.

Vents plus favorables ?

Mais l’année 2015 pourrait bien se présenter sous des hospices un peu moins négatifs. Deux facteurs clés l’expliquent : la montée du dollar par rapport à l’euro, et l’effondrement du prix du pétrole. Deux faits qui ont un poids important sur la croissance de l’UE et de la France. L’euro est aujourd’hui à ses plus bas face au dollar depuis dix ans, et il ne faut pas oublier que sa dépréciation au tournant du siècle avait joué un rôle dans la forte croissance de l’époque. Alors qu’au printemps, l’euro s’échangeait entre 1,35 et 1,4 dollars, il s’approche aujourd’hui du cap des 1,2 dollars, du fait de la croissance des Etats-Unis et de la perspective d’une hausse des taux de la Fed l’an prochain notamment.

Outre la baisse de l’euro s’ajoute la très forte baisse concomitante du prix du baril de pétrole, qui a perdu près de 50% de sa valeur depuis le mois de juin, sous les 60 dollars, dans le cadre d’un jeu géostratégique où de nombreuses hypothèses sont avancées. Le FMI a annoncé que cette baisse contribuera à doper la croissance mondiale de 0,3 à 0,8 point en 2015 et 2016. Et cela est logique pour des pays exportateurs puisque cela va améliorer le pouvoir d’achat des consommateurs mais aussi diminuer les coûts des entreprises qui atteindroint plus facilement leurs objectifs de profits et pourraient donc tailler un peu moins dans les coûts, ce qui pèsera moins sur la croissance.

Bien sûr, 2015 ne sera pas l’année d’une reprise flamboyante et tous les déséquilibres majeurs subsisteront, mais le contexte économique qui se dessine semble devoir être plus positif, rendant finalement possible l’hypothèse d’une légère accélération de la croissance, autour de 1%.

325 commentaires:

  1. Désolé, Laurent mais on dit que 2015 pourrait bien se présenter sous des auspices un peu moins négatives. Cependant les craintes qu'exprime Jacques Sapir dans la dernière livraison de son carnet sont loin d'être infondées.

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  2. 1% ne fera que stabiliser le chômage, pas le baisser.

    Sapir parle d'exportations à 25% du PIB, en fait c'est 6%, les économies sont moins imbriquées qu'il le dit :

    En fait, les entreprises exportatrices dégagent en moyenne une valeur ajoutée de 25% sur leur chiffre d’affaires exporté. La part de la valeur ajoutée dans les exportations rapportée à l’ensemble du PIB est donc 4 fois inférieure au taux d’ouverture officiel.

    http://www.causeur.fr/le-protectionnisme-europeen-existe-deja-14757.html#

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  3. Le premier client en VA française sont les USA, devant l'Allemagne.

    http://www.oecd.org/fr/sti/ind/TiVA%20France.pdf

    Donc, la baisse de l'euro par rapport au dollar est plutôt favorable à ses exports.

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  4. Il y a un autre élément important dans l'article de Sapir, c'est que la baisse du prix du pétrole met en difficulté les start-up américaines qui ont proliféré sur l'exploitation du gaz de schiste. Comme ces entreprises sont surendettées, le risque d'un retournement financier est important.
    Aux difficultés russes s'ajoutent le ralentissement des pays émergents et la baisse des recettes (donc des importations) des pays pétroliers.
    Plus généralement, les causes de la crise de 2008 ne sont pas purgées. Les taux d'endettement des agents privés restent élevés (et il continuent à augmenter en France depuis 2008). Wall Street bat de nouveaux records contre toute logique.
    De toute façon nous approchons vraisemblablement de la fin du cycle haussier qui a succédé à la crise dans les pays anglo-saxons. Si la France doit connaître un regain de croissance, ce sera à contre-courant et pour peu de temps...

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  5. La dégradation de l'économie russe parait sous estimée :

    http://www.pauljorion.com/blog/2014/12/27/ces-russes-sont-de-vilains-copieurs-par-francois-leclerc/

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  6. @ Anonymes

    Il est bien évident que les craintes de Sapir sont fondées. Notez que je prends des précautions. Et il est bien évident que 1% ne fera pas fortement baisser le chômage. Intéressant point sur le PIB. Point intéressant également sur les Etats-Unis.

    @ J Halpern

    Merci pour ces précisions

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  7. Bonjour ,

    Je suis Bastien, Digital Marketing Manager chez Ecoreuil.fr.

    J'ai pensé que vous seriez intéressé par notre article et infographie sur le pétrole. Nous y mettons en avant les chiffres impressionnants liés à son commerce, et sa nécessité dans nos économies.

    https://www.ecoreuil.fr/blog/economie-petroliere

    Vous être libre de publier l'infographie ou tout autre partie de la page si vous estimez qu'elle est pertinente pour l'audience de votre site.

    Qu'en pensez-vous ?

    En vous souhaitant une bonne journée !

    Bien cordialement,
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    bastien@potential.asia

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  8. Salut chers internautes,

    Je suis Kelly VERNA, étudiante en BTS Assistant Manager à Saint-Etienne. Cette année, je dois effectuer un stage à l'étranger. J'ai donc décidé de partir à Malte avec 3 amis de ma classe. Nous avions trouvé un logement sur un groupe Facebook : "Français à Malte". Nous avions alors posté une annonce décrivant notre besoin de logement pour 2 mois : du 07 Mai au 11 Juillet 2017. Suite à cette annonce, nous avons été contacté par une femme s''intitulant "Lynn Michelle Tungate". Elle nous a proposé un logement à Malte, incluant des photos et vidéos. Suite à plusieurs échanges, nous avons signé un contrat qui est bien évidemment faux, malheureusement je l'ai remarqué trop tard. Suivant la procédure décrit dans le contrat, nous avons effectué un premier virement de 1000€ pour la caution, le 02 Mars 2017. Puis nous devions en suite régler le premier mois de la location ; 1000€. Un de mes 3 amis a effectué un virement de 250€ le 28 Mars 2017. Mes deux autres amis et moi-même devions effectuer chacune un virement de ce même montant. Soit 4 x 250€ = 1000€. Mais nous avons découvert avant qu'il ne soit trop tard, que, cette femme dénommée Lynn Michelle Tungate s'avère être une arnaque vivante. Nous avons découvert par le biais d'une amie de ma classe, à qui elle propose le même logement sous une adresse postale différente à chaque fois. Évidemment, elle change de compte Facebook pour ne pas se faire remarquer. Nous avons 2 RIB de comptes bancaires différents, le premier virement était sous le nom de "Abdulhayyu Hamisu Lawal" étant dans une banque "Deutsch Bank" à Mannheim, Allemagne. Le deuxième virement, fait par mon ami, était sous le nom de "Lynn Michelle Tungate" dans la banque "Santander Consumer Bank" à Mannheim également. Pour arrêter cette saigné nous avions donc contacté un officier de la police judiciaire qui nous a aidé à déposer une plainte au niveau de l’ORGANISATION INTERNATIONALE DE POLICE CRIMINELLE-INTERPOL qui nous a aidé à se faire rembourser. Nous ne sommes certainement pas ses premières victimes donc nous demandons à toute personne victime de contacter cette Organisation pour que justice soit faite.

    Email : oipc_i@yahoo.com / oipc-i@perso.be

    Merci pour votre lecture,

    Cordialement

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  9. Salut à tous les amis
    Attention aux arnaques
    Merci pour cette analyse précise dont j’ai hélas trop tard compris les mécanismes. En effet, je sors de mon silence avec une phobie pour les ordinateurs puisque en Mars 2017, j’ai été approché par un homme, puis par un autre (son ami) et durant 1 an j’ai versé l’équivalent de 62 000 euros sans me rendre compte de l’escroquerie. C’est en recevant un chèque volé que j’ai tout découvert. J’ai porté plainte mais je n’ai eu de honte et effondrement psychologique. Depuis je vois un psychiatre, je ne sors plus et je n’approche plus aucun site de rencontre. Cela m’aura couté une telle souffrance que je ne vis plus qu’au jour le jour. C’est ainsi que j’ai cherchait de l’aide sur les forums et j’ai vue l’adresse de la brigade de recherche en cybercriminalité. quelle que soit le genre d'arnaque grosse somme d’argent, d’achats non conformes à la photo, de virement bancaire, de chantage sur le net, de faux maraboutage et faux compte,paypal, de fausses histoire d’amour pour soutirer de l’argent, de vente de voiture, de gay et lesbienne et de faux tirage a la loterie etc....., si vous le contacté, il trouvera facilement vos escrocs grâce a un système GPS WALO et une fois qu’ils seront arrêtés grâce a leur systeme WALO Cette structure m’a beaucoup aidé. Etant donné que j’étais toujours en contact avec eux, ils ont eu à entamer des démarches pour faire arrêter les usurpateurs d’identité de … (censuré par l’administration du site – ne jamais citer de noms !)… J’ai reçu mon remboursement grâce à cette brigade. J’étais arrivé à un stade malheureux de ma vie ou tout était devenu difficile pour moi, même pour manger. On ne sait vraiment pas a quoi s’attendre sur internet donc je suis très méfiante a partir de ce moment, je crois que l’amour virtuel n’existe pas.
    L’adresse de la brigade: int.cellulegouv@gmail.com
    Merci de m’avoir lu.
    Salutations.

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  10. Je suis victime d’une arnaque de rencontre et une personne ayant venu a mon aide suivez mon témoignage

    Emails : int.cellulegouv@gmail.com

    je me prénomme Denise j’ai été victime d’arnaque de rencontre en Afrique au prix de 30.000€
    c’était un homme au nom de Olivier Goulier que j’ai rencontrer sur internet sur Darling.fr. Nous avons sympathiser via skype, via whatsapp puis quelques temps après il m’a dit qu’il se rendait en afrique pour le travail car il travaillait dans l’immobilier, on a toujours garder contact au point où je suis tombé amoureuse de ce dernier et lui aussi, après deux semaines passées dans ce pays en Afrique il ma demandé de lui donner la somme de 5000€ car sa voiture de location était une voiture volé et on l’avait appréhendé avec de l’or il avait besoin de cette somme que je lui ai versé, la semaine d’après il venait de se faire agresser il lui fallait encore de l’argent et encore jusqu’à se que je sois totalement ruinée et je me suis rendu conte que c’était de l’arnaque puisse qu’il n’arrivait jamais en France car a chaque fois il rejetait le voyage. j’étais abattu, déboussolée, je n’avais plus goût à la vie car tout mes proches m’en voulaient. Dès lors j’ai fait la connaissance d’un inspecteur qui est un agent de la police Interpol, grâce a une amie, et il m’a beaucoup aider a mettre la main sur ses individus mal intentionné et j’ai eu confiance en moi même puis j’ai été remboursé de toutes mes pertes avec un dédommagement parce qu’il a usé de son pouvoir en étant en collaboration avec d’autres pays.Alors si vous avez été arnaqué sur la toile d’une : grosse somme d’argent, d’achats non conformes à la photo, de virement bancaire, de chantage sur le net, de faux maraboutage et faux compte PayPal, de fausses histoire d’amour pour soutirer de l’argent, de vente de voiture, de gay et lesbienne et de faux tirage a la loterie etc….., si vous le contacté, il trouvera facilement vos escroc et une fois qu’ils seront arrêtés, vous serez rembourser de tous vos frais suivi des frais de dédommagement ou n’importe quelle organisation contribuant à l’insécurité sur votre territoire via Internet quelques soit veuillez contacter l’inspecteur monsieur Charles Rousseau sur son adresse mail suivant ils pourront vous aidez alors je vous donne leur adresse afin que justice vous soit rendu. je vous rassure qu’ils ont été vraiment intelligent et aussi efficace .

    Emails : int.cellulegouv@gmail.com

    Cordialement a vous Mme Denise Dotte

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  11. INFOS URGENT AUX VICTIMES D'ARNAQUES SUR INTERNET

    Vu les nombreuses plaintes sur les forums et témoignages des victimes d’arnaques, nous constatons que ces derniers temps, il y a des victimes tous les jours et nous sommes sûr que d’autres se font avoir et ne disent rien par honte. Il faut absolument que toutes les victimes d’arnaques sur internet portent plainte. En ligne, cela ne prend que 5 minutes et la confirmation de la police Interpol n’est pas compliquée.IL FAUT LE FAIRE… car nous le faisons pour que la police face leur travail et au moins être rembourser les victimes d'arnaques de tout genre sur internet pour un dédommagement qui varie du double au triple selon le montant escroquer par ses fraudeurs . Bien sûre nous serons à l’écoute pour des solutions adéquates.

    E-mail : office.consultant@europe.com / celluleinterpolmondial@rocketmail.com

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  12. Chers citoyens utilisateurs d’internet, Vous pouvez être confronté à des organisations, des sociétés ou des individus malveillants vous proposant par courrier, téléphone, ou tout autre moyen de communication des services adaptés, des prêts à taux zéro, des héritages mirobolants . Ils vous demanderont de l’argent ou vous adresserons par la suite des factures correspondant à des prestations inexistantes. Il vous est évidemment loisible de saisir la brigade la plus proche de vous afin de porter plainte contre X. Par ailleurs, que vous soyez une entreprise ou un particulier, si vous pensez être victime d'une escroquerie, vous pouvez contacter LA BRIGADE SIGNAL ARNAQUE Composée de policiers et de gendarmes. Cette unité est chargée d'informer, de conseiller et d'orienter les personnes victimes d'une escroquerie. Le service est ouvert 24H / 24H  du lundi au dimanche.
    CONSEILS PRATIQUES :
    – Ne jamais communiquer le numéro de carte bancaire pour le paiement de votre impôt ou le remboursement d'un crédit d’impôt, ni pour compléter vos coordonnées personnelles.
    – Ne jamais envoyer de l'argent à un inconnu.
    – signaler tout contenu ou comportement illicite que vous auriez rencontré dans votre utilisation d'internet en général.
    Adresses mails : brigade.signal.arnaque.interpol@gmail.com /
    brigade.signal.arnaque.interpol@outlook.fr

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  13. Après une étude des différentes  plaintes enregistrées au niveau des  brigades de chaque département, nous avons constaté une recrudescence des plaintes liés à la cybercriminalité. Ces différentes plaintes sont restées sans suite pour des raisons multiples.  Nous sommes également convaincus que plusieurs d’autres victimes  n'osent pas déposer de plainte parce qu’ils sont menacées ou   reçoivent  diverses  intimidations. Pour faciliter la tâche à toutes personnes victimes d’une quelconque arnaque, une vaste opération de lutte  contre la cybercriminalité est lancée. Il suffira juste de déposer UNE PLAINTE EN LIGNE. N’hésitez pas à nous contacter afin que nous puissions, dans un premier temps, étudier et échanger avec vous sur votre dossier. Après cette étape  votre plainte sera immédiatement prise en compte par nos services compétents qui seront en contact avec vous. Ils  vous tiendront informé à chaque étape de la procédure et travaillerons en collaboration avec vous jusqu’à l’arrestation de vos escrocs afin que vous soyez remboursés et dédommagés.
     
    PLAINTE EN LIGNE : brigade_anti_fraude@europamel.net /  brigade.anti.fraude.interpol@gmail.com

    NB : Nos services et interventions sont entièrement gratuits

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  14. Il est parfois difficile de savoir si on est victime, ou si d'autres personnes vivent des situations similaires à la nôtre. L'engagement quotidien de la BRIGADE SIGNAL ARNAQUE est de permettre à toutes les personnes victimes d’arnaque de connaitre leurs droits et de les faire valoir en déposant une plainte avec des preuves pouvant permettre aux Officiers de Police Judiciaire de mener des enquêtes qui aboutiront à l’arrestation des cybercriminels. Ces victimes seront ensuite soutenues dans toutes les démarches administratives alors si vous êtes victimes d’une quelconque arnaque, veuillez contacter :
    brigade_signal_arnaque@europamel.net / brigadesignalarnaque@mail.com

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  19. Pour remédier aux préjudices financiers subis sur internet, l'Organisme International de Répression Contre la Cybercriminalité et la Brigade d'enquêtes sur les fraudes aux technologies de l’information créés par les pouvoirs publics et en collaboration par Interpol mondial sont à la disposition de toute personne victime de toutes formes d'escroquerie sur internet. Contactez-nous directement à l'adresse suivante:

    interpol.victimearnaque@gmail.com / interpol.victimearnaque@gmail.com

    Votre plainte sera immédiatement prise en compte par nos experts et une procédure sera mise en œuvre de l'arrestation jusqu'au remboursement de la somme arnaquée y compris le dédommagement dans certains cas.

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